In-depth: Can Trump still rise?

Official Trump (TRUMP) token is a personal memecoin launched by Donald Trump on January 18, 2025, making waves across the crypto market. Issued on the Solana chain, it has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with an initial circulating supply of 200 million. The remaining 80% (800 million tokens) are jointly held by two Trump Organization entities (CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC) and are subject to a three-year linear vesting schedule. TRUMP token has no complicated use case—its official positioning is as a way to support and participate in the “TRUMP” symbol and its ideals, rather than as an investment contract or security. At launch, it was available for purchase via the Moonshot platform, supporting fiat channels like ApplePay and Visa, as well as crypto payments in USDC and SOL. This made it easy for non-crypto natives to get involved, drastically lowering the entry barrier. Trump and his family have repeatedly promoted the token on social media (including announcing a dinner for the top 220 holders), further fueling market hype. **Market Performance:** TRUMP’s debut was explosive and highly volatile: on launch day, the price soared as high as $75, with market cap quickly surging into the billions. Reports show that trading volume topped $1.3 billion within the first two hours. After a brief correction, the rally continued, briefly pushing TRUMP’s market cap past $8 billion. On January 19, as major exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Coinbase rushed to list the token, TRUMP’s price was pushed to a historic high near $80. But the euphoria was short-lived—investors soon realized the token supply was highly concentrated and the vesting period was short, triggering heavy sell pressure and a sharp reversal. In the following months, TRUMP’s price saw a major pullback: as of April 2025, it traded around $13.5, down over 84% from its peak, with a circulating market cap of about $2.6 billion—already looking overstretched given its fundamentals. By mid-August 2025, TRUMP stabilized in the $8–9 range, with a circulating market cap of $1.7 billion and full dilution pushing near $8 billion. After the wild pump, TRUMP has given back most of its gains, with a still considerable but much cooler market cap. Notably, despite the price drop, TRUMP remains highly traded: open interest in its futures sits at $700 million, ranking top 10 market-wide, and at one point its daily spot trading volume (excluding stablecoins) broke into the crypto top 5. The fierce spot and derivatives activity shows intense long-short battles, with the $10 level becoming a tug of war. All in all, TRUMP—backed directly by a sitting US President—has achieved a legendary level of influence, but also displays the classic pattern of meme coin mania followed by mean reversion. **Token Distribution:** TRUMP’s supply is extremely concentrated—official disclosures show the top 10 addresses control nearly 90% of the supply, with the largest (Trump family-related entities) holding 80%. These 800 million team tokens are being gradually unlocked over three years. While the lockup mechanism slows down dumping, it can’t change the expectation of a steadily increasing supply: in the next three years, circulating supply will grow from 200 million to 1 billion. In other words, unless demand keeps pace, the steady stream of unlocks will create persistent sell pressure. On-chain data reveals the Trump team already cashed out some tokens at high prices: reports indicate Trump-affiliated entities sold $500 million worth of TRUMP soon after launch, representing 5% of total supply. Although the team still holds a massive stack (about 85% of supply), this move confirms market fears of “selling into strength.” Such an imbalanced distribution means regular holders are at a major disadvantage—constantly at risk of getting dumped on by whales. Details on unlocks for early private investors or whales are unclear, but from the huge exchange volumes, it’s evident that a significant chunk of the initial 200 million circulating tokens has already changed hands to new bagholders. Overall, TRUMP’s highly centralized token distribution and persistent unlock pressure are the biggest long-term overhangs for its price action. **Market Attention & Narrative Impact:** As a crypto asset with strong political overtones, TRUMP’s market cap and attention far outpace typical memecoins. The key driver behind its early explosion was Trump’s phenomenal personal influence and his ability to drive hype. In early 2025, the crypto market was already in bull mode, and with Trump’s dramatic return to the presidency, TRUMP became the perfect catalyst to ignite market sentiment. A flood of non-crypto investors were drawn in by Trump’s tweets, making TRUMP a viral topic and fueling a “mainstream craze.” The power of this political narrative is clear: with a sitting President backing it, many believed TRUMP “deserved” a higher valuation—some even benchmarked it against Dogecoin’s $8 billion market cap, arguing TRUMP should be worth more, with price targets of $30 and beyond. The Trump team rode the hype hard, promising dinners with holders and other stunts to boost community cohesion and the “honor” of holding the token. On the flip side, TRUMP’s...