In our tweet on August 18th (see reference), we analyzed that $112,000 is one of the key levels for BTC in this cycle. It not only measures the validity of the URPD dual-anchor structure, but also represents the average cost basis for short-term holders (less than 3 months). If this level is breached, it could trigger a much stronger wave of market pessimism.
(Figure 1)
As of now, we can see that BTC price found temporary support right at the blue line yesterday (Figure 1). This is a positive sign, as it suggests most short-term holders are unwilling to sell at breakeven, so selling pressure has decreased. We can view this as the emotional bottom still holding up.
(Figure 2)
However, the reason I say “temporary” support is because realized losses yesterday still hit $87M (Figure 2). While that’s less than the $112M on 8/18, it’s still higher than the $70M on 8/19. Ideally, we’d like to see realized losses shrink even if price drops—but right now, all we can say is sentiment is slowly improving, but it’s too soon to call a full reversal.
So in the coming days, $112,000 remains the critical support to watch. As long as it holds, the trend is intact. Personally, I’m still hopeful.
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‼️ This post is for educational purposes only and is NOT financial advice ‼️
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